Executive Summary
Lebanon's retail sector has undergone a structural transformation since 2019 that goes far beyond simple contraction. While aggregate consumer spending in USD terms fell by an estimated 61% between 2019 and 2023, the distribution of that decline — and the pockets of unexpected resilience — reveals a more nuanced story about how Lebanese consumers and businesses adapt under extreme economic stress.
This whitepaper draws on Berix retail transaction monitoring, foot traffic data, and enterprise survey results to construct a sector-by-sector picture of retail performance across the crisis period.
Sectors That Contracted Severely
- Luxury & Fashion: -78% in USD terms. The collapse of the upper-middle class as a consumer segment, combined with the exit of international brands, devastated this category.
- Consumer Electronics: -71%. Combination of import restrictions, currency collapse, and shift to second-hand markets.
- Furniture & Home Goods: -65%. Linked to the collapse of the real estate market and the departure of households.
- Automotive: -69%. New car sales essentially ceased; the market shifted entirely to used vehicles.
Sectors That Adapted
- Grocery & Food Retail: -23% in USD terms, but significant structural shift toward smaller-format stores, local sourcing, and cash transactions.
- Pharmacy & Health: -18%. Sustained by essential demand, though product availability became highly variable.
- Hardware & Building Materials: -31%. Supported by reconstruction demand and the informal construction sector.
Sectors That Unexpectedly Grew
Implications for Market Entry
For international brands and investors considering Lebanon, the retail data tells a clear story: the pre-crisis consumer market no longer exists. Any market entry strategy premised on the Lebanon of 2018 will fail. However, the crisis has created genuine market gaps — particularly in affordable, locally-produced consumer goods, second-hand and circular economy retail, and essential services.
Berix's retail intelligence products are designed to help clients identify which specific micro-markets within Lebanon retain viable consumer demand, and which distribution channels have survived the crisis intact.